Monday, September 5, 2011

Nova Open - Inside the numbers

After reading and following the news of the Nova Open across these series of tubes known as the "Internets", I decided to being to analyze the armies/outcomes of the Nova Open. If you take a quick glance, you can clearly see a trend here which is fairly obvious (stats lifted from dakkadakka):

5 x Dark Angels (23-17) 57.5%
22 x Blood Angels (97-79) 55.1%
32 x Grey Knights (140-116) 54.7%
25 x Space Wolves (106-94) 53%
21 x Imperial Guard (88-80) 52.4%
14 x Dark Eldar (58-54) 51.8%
10 x Ork (39-41) 48.8%
4 x Witch Hunters (15-17) 46.9%
6 x Black Templars (26-30) 46.4%
3 x Necron (11-13) 45.8%
27 x Space Marines (96-120) 44.4%
6 x Eldar (21-27) 43.8%
10 x Tyranids (34-46) 42.5%
6 x Tau (18-30) 37.5%
6 x Chaos Space Marines (16-32) 33.3%
6 x Chaos Daemons (16-32) 33.3%

With the exception of Tyranids, its clear to see which of the armies have a 5th ed codex release (in red).  Assuming you consider the Dark Angels a bit of an outlier, and Orks having a 5th ed codex if you will, the top armies are all the ones with the latest releases. Now, I'm not certain if this is in fact a result of codex creep or people wanting to play new armies, but its clear those are the books you need to focus on for tournament prep. Now, this is easier said than done as facing a DE army (volume of shooting) is going to go much differently than facing a Ork (horde/wagon rush) or GK (mid range shooting/rifleman dreads) army. There is however a common theme amongst the armies you'll likely face however, they will be mostly shooty in nature... By this, I mean they are going to be spamming Long Fangs, Rifleman Dreads, Venoms, Hyrda Flak tanks and Valkyries.

Now, lets look at the top 16 player at the Nova (courtesy Bald and Screaming - http://www.baldandscreaming.com/news/nova-open-coverage/):

Nick Nanavati (Grey Knights) versus Neil Gilstrap (Grey Knights)
Tony Kopach (Space Wolves) versus Rich Puig (Imperial Guard)
Dawson Hindrelet (Space Wolves) versus Mike Somerville (Imperial Guard)
Brad Townsend (Space Wolves) versus Andrew Gonyo (Grey Knights)
Mike Hoffman (Orks) versus Allan Hernandez (Grey Knights)
Adam Tricola (Dark Eldar) versus Aaron Aleong (Space Wolves)
Mike Taylor (Grey Knights) versus Devin Schafer (Blood Angels)
Justin Hilderbrandt (Dark Eldar) versus Casey Christopher (Tyranids)
 
Again, we see a trend that I expected but its become more prolific than I expected, nine were Space Wolves or Grey Knight players...

So, I will soon be posting my 1850 list which I believe will be able to combat the current meta. Until then, keep this info in mind as you prepare for your next tournament.